Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 0.008520 0.009601 0.010784 0.012179 0.013782 0.015569 0.017721
2024-12-29 0.006741 0.008186 0.009907 0.012122 0.014914 0.018340 0.022901
2025-01-05 0.006034 0.007705 0.009813 0.012695 0.016572 0.021667 0.028965
2025-01-12 0.005166 0.006852 0.009074 0.012256 0.016761 0.023009 0.032503
2025-01-19 0.004540 0.006217 0.008512 0.011931 0.016990 0.024346 0.036125
2025-01-26 0.004135 0.005830 0.008225 0.011929 0.017634 0.026304 0.040890
2025-02-02 0.003949 0.005724 0.008316 0.012468 0.019126 0.029693 0.048378
2025-02-09 0.003639 0.005400 0.008042 0.012405 0.019646 0.031584 0.053632
2025-02-16 0.003416 0.005183 0.007904 0.012532 0.020470 0.034051 0.060233
2025-02-23 0.003156 0.004882 0.007603 0.012351 0.020739 0.035574 0.065308
2025-03-02 0.002994 0.004723 0.007512 0.012507 0.021602 0.038243 0.072964
2025-03-09 0.002812 0.004514 0.007319 0.012460 0.022084 0.040253 0.079607
2025-03-16 0.002554 0.004167 0.006875 0.011950 0.021695 0.040644 0.083159
2025-03-23 0.002395 0.003977 0.006690 0.011897 0.022185 0.042853 0.091106
2025-03-30 0.002346 0.003973 0.006827 0.012458 0.023942 0.047886 0.106390
2025-04-06 0.002158 0.003707 0.006470 0.012028 0.023632 0.048494 0.111324
2025-04-13 0.002004 0.003490 0.006184 0.011710 0.023514 0.049501 0.117432
2025-04-20 0.001905 0.003366 0.006062 0.011707 0.024070 0.052100 0.128130
2025-04-27 0.001878 0.003374 0.006193 0.012235 0.025858 0.057828 0.148426
2025-05-04 0.001784 0.003248 0.006051 0.012174 0.026300 0.060383 0.160452
2025-05-11 0.001718 0.003170 0.005998 0.012298 0.027187 0.064175 0.176942
2025-05-18 0.001625 0.003035 0.005817 0.012121 0.027329 0.066070 0.188102
2025-05-25 0.001572 0.002974 0.005784 0.012274 0.028299 0.070302 0.207650